In an exhaustive research programme launched yesterday by a trio of British establishments - Lloyd's Register, Qinetiq and the University of Strathclye – the Middle East looks set to remain the world's dominant oil exporter, with China more than making up for declining US sales. The report, Global Marine Trends, charts likely developments in shipping and offshore through to 2030. Middle East to China crude oil seaborne trade is set to grow by 4.5 times from 2010 levels of 126m tonnes to a huge 571m tonnes in 2030.  The next biggest growth of Middle East crude sales will be to Southeast Asia, set to grow 4.2 times in the same period to 345m tonnes, the same figure as for South Asia, which the report said could grow by 3.2 times. Such phenomenal growth more than makes up for an expected significant drop in Middle East – US oil trades, as the US weens itself off imports.

Middle East – North America oil trades are expected to decline 74% from 2010's figure of 88m tonnes to just 32m tonnes.  Lloyd's Register noted in a press release: "The China factor will still be the big story in 2030. China, consuming three times-as-much oil as it does today and 60% of the world's coal, will be the marketplace for maritime trade."